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ref: 89db8a0db3b15ad1a131b443ccfe2a0d5f08170a sive.rs/site/no-oracle -rw-r--r-- 3.3 KiB
89db8a0d — Derek Sivers formatting 4 months ago
                                                                                
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<title>Nobody knows the future, so focus on what doesn’t change. | Derek Sivers</title>
<meta name="description" content="At every music conference, with a panel of experts on stage, the moderator always asks, “What’s the future of the music business?”">
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<h1><a href="/" title="Derek Sivers">Derek Sivers</a></h1>
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<div class="blogparent">from the book “<a href="/m">Your Music and People</a>”:</div>
<h1>Nobody knows the future, so focus on what doesn’t change.</h1>
<small>2008-10-17</small>
  <audio src="https://m.sive.rs/sive.rs.no-oracle.mp3" preload="none" controls="controls"></audio>
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<p>
	At every music conference, with a panel of experts on stage, the moderator always asks, “What’s the future of the music business?”
</p><p>
	The guy selling video subscriptions will say that videos are the future.
</p><p>
	The guy selling intelligent playlists will say that intelligent playlists are the future.
</p><p>
	When they ask me, I always say, “Nobody knows the future, and anyone who pretends to know can’t be trusted.”
</p><p>
	We have a desperate need for certainty, so we want someone to tell us what’s coming.
	But it’s impossible.
	Nobody can possibly know.
</p><p>
	Besides, would it matter what anyone says?
	Realistically, what would you change about what you’re doing, day-to-day?
	Like if someone said, “Scented holograms are the future”, would you start making them tomorrow?
	No.
</p><p>
	Instead, forget predicting, and focus on what doesn’t change.
	Just like we know there will be gravity, and water will be wet, we know some things stay the same.
</p><p><strong>
	People always love a memorable melody.
</strong>
	You can’t know what instrumentation or production style will be in fashion.
	So focus on the craft of making great melodies.
</p><p><strong>
	People always want an emotional connection.
</strong>
	You can’t know what technology will carry that communication.
	So focus on the essence of how to connect with an audience.
</p><p><strong>
	Writing lots of songs increases your chances of writing a hit.
</strong>
	You can’t know which song will be a hit.
	So write as many songs as you can.
</p><p>
<strong>
	Instead of predicting the future, focus your time and energy on the fundamentals.
</strong>
	The unpredictable changes around them are just the details.
</p>

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© 2008 <a href="https://sive.rs/">Derek Sivers</a>.
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